Our Expertise
Eight Areas of Deep Specialisation
Across hundreds of evaluations, policy engagements, and capacity-building programmes, we have built rigorous, decision-ready expertise in the sectors that drive development. In every area, one question drives our work: what is the most cost-effective way to generate maximum impact? Can’t see your sector? Get in touch, and we’ll work with you.
AI & Digital Transformation
Governing AI. Proving Its Value.
The question is no longer whether to adopt AI, it is whether the AI being adopted actually works, for whom, and at what cost. Kernel evaluates AI deployments with the same rigour we apply to any policy intervention, and builds the governance capacity governments need to procure, deploy, and regulate AI responsibly.
What We Do
Our AI & Digital Services
Our AI & Digital Services
We apply causal evaluation methods to AI deployments in agriculture, health, education, and government — generating evidence on what AI actually delivers, for whom, and at what cost.
WHAT WE DELIVER
- AI system impact evaluations
- Cost-effectiveness vs. alternative interventions
- Population-disaggregated outcome analysis
- Evidence briefs for AI procurement decisions
AI Governance & Safety
We build regulatory capacity and safety frameworks for AI governance, adapted to the institutional realities, data environments, and accountability gaps that define developing-country AI risk profiles.
WHAT WE DELIVER
- AI governance frameworks and risk registers
- AI procurement standards and audit tools
- Regulatory readiness assessments
- AI safety guidelines for public institutions
AI Practitioners Programme
We equip policymakers, civil servants, and analysts with the technical literacy and evaluation skills to understand, scrutinise, and govern AI systems, building in-country capacity from the inside out.
WHAT WE DELIVER
- Structured AI literacy training programmes
- Applied AI evaluation workshops
- Policy simulation and scenario exercises
- AI Fellowship (see Academy)
Education
What Works in Education — Proven.
Education spending is the single largest item in most developing-country budgets, yet most programmes have never been rigorously evaluated. Kernel identifies which investments in learning, from early childhood through tertiary and workforce pathways, deliver the greatest educational and economic returns per resource invested.
What We Do
Our Education Services
Early Childhood Education
The period from birth to age eight offers the highest return on any educational investment. Kernel evaluates ECD programmes for developmental outcomes, equity, and cost per child reached.
WHAT WE DELIVER
- ECD programme impact evaluations
- Cost per developmental outcome analysis
- Parenting programme design and RCTs
- ECD policy and financing strategies
School Quality & Learning Outcomes
We evaluate which school-level interventions, from teacher training to technology to infrastructure, produce measurable gains in literacy, numeracy, and learning per dollar invested.
WHAT WE DELIVER
- Learning outcome evaluations
- Teacher effectiveness and training ROI
- School quality diagnostics
- Education technology cost-effectiveness
Tertiary to Employment Pathways
We evaluate the links between higher education, skills training, and employment, identifying the programmes that convert academic achievement into sustained economic participation.
WHAT WE DELIVER
- Graduate employment outcome evaluations
- Skills gap and labour market analysis
- TVET cost-effectiveness assessments
- University-to-work transition strategies
Behavioural Science & Nudge Design
Change Behaviour. At Fraction of the cost.
Behavioural science offers some of the most cost-effective policy tools available. A well-designed nudge can achieve the same outcome as an expensive programme at a fraction of the cost. Many policy failures are not failures of resource or intent, they are failures of design. Kernel identifies those opportunities and proves they work.
What We Do
Our Behavioural Science Services
Behavioural Diagnostics
Before designing any intervention, we map the behavioural barriers and biases that drive the problem. This diagnostic step identifies the highest-leverage, lowest-cost opportunities for change.
WHAT WE DELIVER
- Barrier analysis and root cause diagnostics
- Cognitive bias mapping
- Qualitative and survey-based diagnostics
- Decision-point identification
Nudge Design & A/B Testing
We design, test, and iterate low-cost nudge interventions, using A/B testing and randomised trials to identify the versions that produce the greatest behaviour change at the lowest cost.
WHAT WE DELIVER
- Nudge-based intervention design
- Randomised A/B testing protocols
- Message framing and default redesign
- Rapid iteration and optimisation cycles
Choice Architecture & Policy Design
We help governments redesign public programmes using choice architecture, structuring how options are presented to guide citizens toward better outcomes without restricting their freedom.
WHAT WE DELIVER
- Public service choice architecture redesign
- Form and interface simplification
- Tax, health, and social protection nudges
- Scale-up and institutionalisation support
Governance
Governments That Deliver. Measurably.
Strong governance is not only about accountability, it is about performance. Kernel works with governments and institutions to strengthen the systems, incentives, and structures that drive effective public service delivery, integrating cost-effectiveness analysis into every reform.
What We Do
Our Governance Services
Institutional Performance
We diagnose what drives, and what blocks effective institutional performance, using evidence-based frameworks to identify high-leverage reform opportunities.
WHAT WE DELIVER
- Institutional capacity diagnostics
- Performance measurement system design
- Service delivery quality assessments
- Incentive structure analysis
Public Financial Management
We help governments spend better, analysing budget efficiency, identifying wasteful allocations, and building the evidence base for budget decisions that maximise public value.
WHAT WE DELIVER
- Public expenditure reviews
- Budget efficiency and value-for-money analysis
- Revenue enhancement strategies
- Public investment management
Accountability & Anti-Corruption
We design accountability systems, social audit mechanisms, and anti-corruption frameworks that create genuine incentives for transparent, performance-oriented governance.
WHAT WE DELIVER
- Social accountability mechanism design
- Corruption risk assessment and mapping
- Transparency and open data strategies
- Citizen feedback system design
Agriculture
Farming Incomes. Rigorously Raised.
Agriculture employs the majority of the working population in many developing countries yet generates persistently low returns. Kernel identifies which interventions, from extension services to irrigation to market linkages, deliver the highest and most sustainable income gains per resource invested, in the specific contexts where they are deployed.
What We Do
Our Agriculture Services
Agricultural Intervention Evaluation
We rigorously evaluate agricultural programmes, extension services, input subsidies, irrigation schemes, and value chain investments, establishing causal evidence of income and productivity impact.
WHAT WE DELIVER
- Farmer income and productivity evaluations
- Extension service effectiveness studies
- Input subsidy cost-effectiveness analysis
- Irrigation ROI and feasibility
Climate-Smart Agriculture
We evaluate which climate-smart agriculture practices deliver the strongest combination of income maintenance, resilience building, and emissions reduction, helping institutions and funders invest where impact is greatest.
WHAT WE DELIVER
- Climate adaptation cost-effectiveness analysis
- Resilience measurement and evaluation
- Agroforestry and soil health assessments
- Carbon and co-benefit ROI analysis
Market Linkages & Cooperatives
We assess the effectiveness of market linkage programmes, farmer cooperatives, and agribusiness value chain investments, identifying which models actually increase farmer income and by how much.
WHAT WE DELIVER
- Cooperative effectiveness evaluation
- Value chain analysis and market linkage ROI
- Agribusiness investment feasibility
- Farmer organisation impact studies
Quality Jobs
Dignified Work. Measured Outcomes.
The developing world does not lack people who want to work, it lacks the infrastructure of opportunity that connects ambition to employment. Kernel evaluates which labour market interventions, training programmes, and enterprise supports produce the most durable employment outcomes, at a cost that makes sense for institutions to replicate and scale.
What We Do
Our Quality Jobs Services
Labour Market Analysis
We analyse labour markets to identify the specific structural barriers and highest-return opportunities for job creation, providing the evidence base for employment policy and investment decisions.
WHAT WE DELIVER
- Labour market diagnostics and gap analysis
- Youth unemployment root cause studies
- Sector-specific employment ROI analysis
- Wage and income trajectory studies
Skills & Training Programme Evaluation
We evaluate skills development and vocational training programmes on the only metric that matters: did graduates get jobs, and were those jobs worth the cost of training?
WHAT WE DELIVER
- Employment placement rate evaluation
- Income gain and wage premium analysis
- TVET and vocational training cost-effectiveness
- Training-to-job pathway evaluation
Enterprise & Entrepreneurship Support
We evaluate business development support, enterprise training, and access-to-finance programmes, identifying which models generate the most sustained job creation per unit of investment.
WHAT WE DELIVER
- Enterprise support programme evaluations
- SME growth and job creation measurement
- Access-to-finance impact assessments
- Business incubator and accelerator ROI
Health
Health Spending That Actually Saves Lives.
Health systems in developing countries face an impossible challenge: enormous need, constrained budgets, and an evidence base that rarely reflects local realities. Kernel helps health policymakers, funders, and implementers make smarter resource allocation decisions, identifying which health interventions deliver the greatest health gains per dollar invested in their specific context.
What We Do
Our Health Services
Health System Cost-Effectiveness
We evaluate health interventions, from community health worker programmes to UHC benefit packages, to identify which deliver the most health gains per unit of cost in real-world delivery contexts.
WHAT WE DELIVER
- Cost per DALY averted analysis
- Health intervention impact evaluations
- UHC priority-setting and benefit package design
- Community health worker programme evaluation
Maternal & Child Health
We evaluate maternal health, nutrition, and child survival programmes using rigorous impact evaluation methods, providing the cost-effectiveness evidence health ministries need to scale what works.
WHAT WE DELIVER
- Maternal mortality intervention evaluations
- Child nutrition programme cost-effectiveness
- Immunisation delivery model comparison
- Antenatal and postnatal care evaluations
Mental Health & Social Care
Mental health is the most underfunded and underevaluated area of health in developing countries. Kernel conducts rigorous evaluations of mental health interventions and social care programmes to build the evidence base that funders and policymakers need.
WHAT WE DELIVER
- Mental health intervention impact evaluations
- Cost per outcome in mental health delivery
- Community-based mental health evaluation
- Social prescribing and care coordination ROI
Fragility, Conflict & Violence
Evidence in the Hardest Contexts.
Fragile and conflict-affected settings are where the need for rigorous evidence is greatest and where evidence is hardest to generate. Kernel has the methodology and field experience to conduct rigorous evaluations in difficult operating environments, producing decision-ready evidence even where standard research approaches are impossible.
What We Do
Our FCV Services
Conflict Sensitivity & Programming
We help development actors programme in conflict-affected contexts, providing conflict analysis, do-no-harm assessments, and evaluation frameworks adapted for fragile operating environments.
WHAT WE DELIVER
- Conflict analysis and political economy mapping
- Do-no-harm assessment frameworks
- Peace dividend and stabilisation evaluation
- Conflict-sensitive programme design
Resilience & Humanitarian Response
We evaluate resilience programming and humanitarian response for cost-effectiveness, helping donors and implementers understand which interventions produce the most durable recovery outcomes.
WHAT WE DELIVER
- Resilience programme impact evaluation
- Humanitarian response cost-effectiveness
- Cash transfer vs. in-kind comparison
- Displacement and return outcome measurement
Violence Prevention & Social Cohesion
We evaluate violence prevention programmes, community policing, social cohesion initiatives, and gender-based violence prevention, using rigorous methods adapted for sensitive and complex operating contexts.
WHAT WE DELIVER
- Violence prevention programme evaluation
- GBV intervention impact and cost-effectiveness
- Social cohesion and trust measurement
- Community security programme assessment
Work With Us in Your Sector
Whatever your area of focus, Kernel brings the same commitment: rigorous evidence, honest cost-effectiveness, and results you can act on.