Kernel Research
The Evidence Engine. Rigorous. Independent. Decision-Ready.
Institutions invest billions in programmes and policies every year, and most cannot answer the two most important questions: Did it work? Was it worth it? Kernel Research exists to answer those questions with precision.
What We Do
We combine rigorous evaluation with cost-effectiveness to show institutions where to invest for maximum return.
We combine rigorous impact evaluation, cost-effectiveness analysis, economic research, and behavioural science to determine what works, what it costs, and where resources should be concentrated for maximum return.
In every engagement we answer three non-negotiable questions: Did it work? What did it cost per outcome? And is there a better alternative? These questions change how budgets are built and how decisions are made.
Three Questions
Every Engagement. No Exceptions.
Kernel Institute always answers these three questions, because knowing that something worked without knowing what it cost is only half the answer.
Question 01
Did it work?
We establish causal impact using the most rigorous methods available, RCTs, difference-in-differences, regression discontinuity, and propensity score matching. We answer not just whether it worked, but for whom and under what conditions.
Question 02
What did it cost per outcome?
We calculate cost-effectiveness ratios, cost per unit of impact, and Social Return on Investment. Every evaluation includes a resource-allocation recommendation, evidence without cost context is incomplete guidance.
Question 03
Is there a better alternative?
We compare interventions, rank options by return on investment, and guide resources to where the next unit of spending delivers the greatest measurable impact. That question changes everything about how budgets are allocated.
Core Services
What Kernel Delivers
Service 01
Data Collection
Impact starts with the right data. We design and execute data collection systems built from the outset to answer cost-effectiveness questions.
- Household and enterprise surveys
- Preference elicitation studies
- Citizen voice and satisfaction surveys
- Rapid mobile data collection
- Baseline and endline survey design
Service 02
Impact Evaluation
We establish causal evidence of what your programme actually caused, paired with cost-effectiveness analysis in every engagement.
- Randomised Controlled Trials (RCTs)
- Difference-in-differences, regression discontinuity
- Cost-effectiveness ratios and cost per outcome
- Social Return on Investment (SROI)
- MEL system design and performance dashboards
Service 03
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis
At Kernel, cost-effectiveness is not an add-on, it is the decision framework. We calculate cost per outcome and compare interventions by return on investment.
- Cost-effectiveness ratios comparing interventions
- Value-for-money across Economy, Efficiency, Effectiveness, Equity
- Marginal cost-effectiveness analysis
- Economic and Social Return on Investment
- Budget impact and resource optimisation
The Kernel Decision Cycle
Five Integrated Phases
Our methodology defines how we approach every engagement, from problem diagnosis to scaled, evidence-based solutions. These five phases are not sequential steps but an integrated cycle of learning and improvement.
01
Diagnose the Problem
We begin by clearly defining the decision challenge and understanding its root causes. Through evidence mapping, diagnostics, and stakeholder engagement, we identify what is really driving the challenge, what constraints exist, and where opportunities lie.
Methods: systematic evidence reviews, baseline analysis, stakeholder consultations, political economy analysis, behavioural diagnostics
02
Design Evidence-Based Solutions
We design solutions grounded in economic theory, behavioural insights, and global best practice, adapted to local context, institutional capacity, and resource constraints. Every solution includes cost-effectiveness analysis before committing resources.
Methods: cost-benefit analysis, economic modelling, behavioural intervention design, policy option development, feasibility analysis
03
Test What Works
Good ideas do not always translate into good outcomes. We pilot and rigorously test interventions to generate credible evidence of what works, for whom, and under what conditions. This test-before-scale approach reduces risk and improves outcomes.
Methods: Randomised Controlled Trials, difference-in-differences, regression discontinuity, propensity score matching, A/B testing
04
Measure Impact and Value for Money
Knowing that something works is not enough, you need to know if it was worth it. We evaluate both outcomes and costs to help institutions allocate resources where they generate the greatest social and economic return.
Methods: causal impact evaluation, cost-effectiveness analysis, value-for-money assessment, Social Return on Investment, performance dashboards
05
Learn, Adapt, and Scale
Evidence is only valuable if it leads to better decisions. Kernel supports institutions to establish learning systems, refine programmes based on what the data shows, and scale interventions that deliver proven, cost-effective results.
Methods: adaptive management frameworks, policy feedback mechanisms, scale-up readiness assessments, MEL system institutionalisation
PDF — Kernel Decision Cycle: Full Methodology Guide
Commission a Study
Whether you need impact evaluation, cost-effectiveness analysis, or economic research, Kernel delivers evidence that changes decisions.